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Federal COVID-19 modelling projects up to 107,000 cases by mid-June

Canada has made significant progress to bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control, according to the federal government’s most recent modelling data.

Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam gave the updated projections on Thursday, confirming that epidemic growth has slowed across all age groups nationwide.

The new projections place the total number of Canadians with COVID-19 at somewhere between 97,000 and 107,000 cases by June 15th. Tam said that would place the total number of deaths linked to the virus by that same date at around 7,700 to 9,400 deaths.

Tam explained how core public health measures remain essential to control the epidemic. She warned that that lifting controls without strengthening other public health measures like contact tracing and testing will likely cause a “drastic epidemic rebound”.

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Tam said outbreaks across Canada point to vulnerabilities in congregate settings, pointing to “Canada’s largest outbreak” that occurred at the Cargill meat processing plant in Alberta which led to 1,560 confirmed cases.

Until there is a vaccine or effective treatment, Tam said the risks associated with the spread of COVID-19 have to be balanced with the unintended social and health consequences of restrictive public health measures.

(Supplied by the Government of Canada)
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